Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3947 LANDED 7:04 PM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 3947 · ORD → DTW

took off 5:15 PM CT · landed 7:04 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3947 · ORD → DTW

Odds over time