Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3952
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3952 · YUM → DFW
departs 5:24 AM MT · arrives 10:21 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave YUM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from YUM are usually not late
Weather at each end
YUM (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.