MQ 3959 · MEM → ORD

departs 10:36 AM CT · arrives 12:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MEM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3959 · MEM → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?