Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3973
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3973 · ORD → BNA
departs 6:40 AM CT · arrives 8:23 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.