Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3986 · GSP → DFW
departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 3:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 84%
Thu 10/1 73%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+34 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +34 pts in 24h
+34 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.12 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.