Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3994 · DFW → LEX
departs 9:40 AM CT · arrives 12:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Arrivals into LEX at that hour are usually not late
↓
LEX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.