Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4005 · DFW → LCH
departs 8:25 AM CT · arrives 9:48 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LCH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LCH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at LCH that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into LCH at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
LCH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.