Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 4005 · LCH → DFW
departs 10:18 AM CT · arrives 11:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
10am departures from LCH are usually not late
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LCH (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,933 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.36 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.