Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4010 · MHK → DFW
departs 11:51 AM CT · arrives 1:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHK
↓
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
Weather at each end
MHK (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.