Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4038
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4038 · TUL → PHX
departs 8:52 AM CT · arrives 9:32 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
8am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.