MQ 4048 · ORD → MSN

took off 7:24 AM CT · landed 7:51 AM CT (scheduled 7:16 AM CT → 8:24 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ 7am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4048 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSN?