Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4075
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4075 · MAF → DFW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
MAF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MAF are usually not late
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.