Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4084 · SAT → DFW
departs 1:44 PM CT · arrives 3:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.16 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.