Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4114
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4114 · EUG → PHX
departs 1:39 PM PT · arrives 4:16 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from EUG are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EUG (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.