Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4116
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4116 · DFW → MAF
departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 10:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 43%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
MAF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.