Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4135
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
MQ 4135 · ORD → TUL
departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 11:34 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Arrivals into TUL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.