Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4173
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4173 · DFW → CRP
departs 8:43 PM CT · arrives 10:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±8 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at CRP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CRP?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at CRP that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MQ's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
CRP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.