Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4179
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4179 · FSM → DFW
departs 6:10 AM CT · arrives 7:32 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at FSM that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from FSM are usually not late
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.