Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4186 LANDED 7:03 AM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

MQ 4186 · BHM → DFW

took off 5:30 AM CT · landed 7:03 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BHM are usually not late

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4186 · BHM → DFW

Odds over time