MQ 4230 · DFW → TRI

departs 1:41 PM CT · arrives 5:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TRI?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ TRI usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.23 in

TRI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4230 · DFW → TRI

Odds over time

How late will it get to TRI?