MQ 4246 · ORD → TRI

took off 9:20 PM CT · landed 11:28 PM ET (scheduled 9:00 PM CT → 11:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TRI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ TRI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TRI (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.50 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4246 · ORD → TRI

Odds over time

How late did it get to TRI?