Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4272
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4272 · ABE → ORD
departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 7:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ABE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ABE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt
Ceiling 7,000 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.