MQ 4311 · SGF → DFW

took off 7:56 PM CT · landed 8:57 PM CT (scheduled 6:51 PM CT → 8:32 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DFW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ SGF is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SGF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4311 · SGF → DFW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DFW?