Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5040 LANDED 11:55 AM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

OH 5040 · PHL → MEM

took off 10:44 AM ET · landed 11:55 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MEM that day

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MEM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5040 · PHL → MEM

Odds over time