Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5166 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5166 · PVD → PHL

departs 10:47 AM ET · arrives 12:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD

↓ 10am departures from PVD are usually not late

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5166 · PVD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?