Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5189 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5189 · PVD → PHL

departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5189 · PVD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?