Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5318 LANDED 8:45 AM ET, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

OH 5318 · MSN → PHL

took off 6:13 AM CT · landed 8:45 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5318 · MSN → PHL

Odds over time