Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

OH 5512 · PHL → MSN

departs 8:52 PM ET · arrives 10:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MSN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5512 · PHL → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?