Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Today

OH 5515 · PHL → CVG

departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5515 · PHL → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?