Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 3015 · SMF → SAN
departs 8:36 AM PT · arrives 10:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 22%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.