Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 3228 · SAN → STS
departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.