Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 3498 · BZN → SEA
departs 6:58 PM MT · arrives 8:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.