Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 3781 · MFR → SEA
departs 6:15 AM PT · arrives 7:52 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1 7%
Fri 10/2 6%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MFR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MFR are usually not late
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.