Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 3806 · SLC → MFR
departs 10:45 AM MT · arrives 11:40 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Fri 10/2 6%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Saturdays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.