Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 3821 · SDF → DTW
departs 10:34 AM ET · arrives 12:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
10am departures from SDF are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.