Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3863 LANDED 7:58 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

OO 3863 · DTW → BUF

took off 7:17 AM ET · landed 7:58 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3863 · DTW → BUF

Odds over time