Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3966
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 3966 · SEA → SNA
departs 7:40 AM PT · arrives 10:41 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.