Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 3999 · SEA → SNA
departs 1:54 PM PT · arrives 4:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.