Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4092 · BZN → SEA
departs 8:25 AM MT · arrives 9:28 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.