Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4097
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4097 · SBN → ATL
departs 1:42 PM ET · arrives 3:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.