Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4107
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4107 · SBN → ATL
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling 3,800 ft
Visibility 4 mi
Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.