Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4121
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 4121 · AUS → MFE
departs 4:55 PM CT · arrives 6:18 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at MFE that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.22 in
MFE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.51 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.