Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4125
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4125 · SEA → SMF
departs 10:00 AM PT · arrives 12:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.