Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 4157 · MEM → DTW
departs 12:07 PM CT · arrives 3:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MEM that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.