Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4278 · DTW → CIU
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CIU more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CIU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CIU?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CIU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.