OO 440 · SFO → ACV

departs 4:01 PM PT · arrives 5:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ACV?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at ACV that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 440 · SFO → ACV

Odds over time

How late will it get to ACV?