Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 4779 · RNO → SFO
departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 3:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from RNO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.