Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4900
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4900 · TUS → PHX
departs 7:04 AM MT · arrives 8:05 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1 13%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 29 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.