Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4969 · ORD → DSM
departs 6:40 AM CT · arrives 8:13 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Saturdays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.