OO 4971 · PHX → ELP

took off 12:56 PM MT · landed 2:46 PM MT (scheduled 12:54 PM MT → 3:16 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ELP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4971 · PHX → ELP

Odds over time

How late did it get to ELP?